At the annual AIAA meeting in Washington, DC, in May, 1994, the Director-General of NASDA (Japan) and the Director of Strategic Planning for ESA (Europe) independently pointed to the Moon as the natural target for exploration in the next Century. However, each emphasized that the international space station had to be operational before either agency could turn its attention and resources to lunar exploration. Nevertheless, planning for lunar initiatives is beginning in both places.

At the 1992 World Space Congress, a 3-day COSPAR symposium on Astronomy and Space Science from the Moon included extensive contributions from Europe. At the symposium, the European Space Agency distributed the publication Mission to the Moon (esa sp 1150), which provides an excellent review and critique of possible observational experiments in the lunar environment.

By the time an international workshop was held in the late spring of 1994 in Beatenberg, Switzerland, ESA plans for future lunar missions had become more structured. Attendees were asked to review and comment on a long-range strategy consisting of four stages: (1) lunar robotic exploration; (2) permanent robotic presence on the surface; (3) initial exploitation of lunar resources; and (4) a lunar human outpost. The authors of the lunar strategy document deliberately refused to specify timelines or budgets for the phases. The first phase is to begin in the near term, will consist initially of lunar orbiters and landers, and will fit into the programmatic envelopes of current ESA scientific activities. The transition to the next phase will occur whenever the capabilities of the enabling technologies match the resources available to carry out the missions.

The workshop issued a statement, now called the Beatenberg Declaration (see Lunar News No. 57), supporting the proposed program in general. However, the precise wording of the statement reflects a compromise between the lunar advocates, who see a human presence on the Moon within the strategic horizon, and the traditionalists of the ESA scientific community, who view human space activities as inappropriate in the context of scientific objectives. The program reviewed at the Beatenberg conference will be presented to a meeting of the European ministers. If adopted, the European space program will take a decided turn toward the Moon following satisfaction of commitments to the international space station.

The prospects for lunar programs in Japan have evolved rapidly in the past year. In July, 1994, a Special Committee on Long-Term Vision, chartered by the Space Activities Commission, issued a report entitled Toward Creation of Space Age in the New Century. The report covers a planning horizon into the third decade of the 21st Century and covers all aspects of JapanŐs investment in space. The report foresees an international lunar base in the third decade and international lunar surface observatories somewhat earlier. Although sections of the report are slightly inconsistent (perhaps through translation difficulties), the plan identifies preliminary lunar missions in the first decade of the next century as part of a comprehensive, long term strategy of lunar exploration and development.

On September 7, 1994, a joint ISAS-NASDA conference was held to discuss plans for lunar exploration prepared by the Japanese Lunar and Planetary Society. Approximately 1000 attendees were addressed by both space professionals and representatives of Japanese society outside the aerospace community. The tone of the meeting was very upbeat and enthusiastic.

In summary, movement toward future lunar programs is proceeding in Europe and in Japan. These strategies are being developed independently in the context of domestic space programs. The European initiative welcomes collaboration, but the authors are quite explicit in private about excluding the U.S. from any critical path of the initiative due to past experience with the unreliability of U.S. commitments. Published Japanese reports stress international cooperation for larger scale activities but explicitly state that international participation is not a necessary condition. These attitudes are real changes from the past. No future NASA lunar program can be formulated under the assumption that "international partners" will sign up to pay for parts of it. Also, NASA can no longer assume that space exploration will wait until the U.S. sets the agenda.